| Paper: |
The
evolution of risk knowledge: connexions of certitude and trust
(Paper
presented at the European Society for Ecological Economics,
“FRONTIERS 1: Fundamental issues in Ecological Economics”,
New Hall, Cambridge, UK, 4-7 July 2001.)
|
| Author: |
Dr Sally Macgill,
School of the Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2
9JT, England. (Died in the Asian tsunami on 26 December 2004)
Dr Yim
Ling Siu, School of the Environment, University of Leeds,
Leeds LS2 9JT, England. e-mail: Y.L.Siu@Leeds.ac.uk
(Tel: +44 113 3436717; fax +44 133 3436716)
|
| Abstract: |
“Knowledge
of risk is the dynamic apposition of certitude and trust.”
In
the field of risk analysis, uncertainty, ignorance and trust
are now widely accepted concepts. However, their meanings
are often ambiguous, and their critical roles in the process
of ‘becoming knowledgeable’ about risk issues, have as yet
not been rigorously examined. The aim of this paper is to
propose a conceptual framework exemplifying the critical roles
and interrelationships of certitude and trust in the development
and evolution of risk knowledge.
The
paper first provides a summary of the concepts of certitude,
trust and risk. This entails a discussion of the definitions,
qualifiers, typologies and sequencing of the relevant concepts.
Some associated areas of confusion are also briefly addressed,
such as ignorance, doubt, opinion and truth. The paper then
presents and illustrates a conceptual framework connecting
certitude and trust in the development of knowledge of risk.
The framework is inclusive of the risk knowledge of all key
constituencies, including expert scientists and the general
public. Through this framework, risk knowledge is formally
defined as a dynamic apposition of certitude and trust through
time and space. It represents a holistic, systemic, integrated
approach to the analysis of the evolution of (scientific and
societal) risk knowledge. Meanings and types of knowledge
of risk are identified and examined. Essential processes and
mechanisms enabling the construction, transmission and sharing
such risk knowledge are explained. A distinctive quality of
the approach is its ability to capture and cope with the intrinsic
dynamic duality of risk: physical entities and social perceptions.
Finally, the paper gives a number of related new research
directions associated with the new conceptual risk knowledge
framework.
|
