Chris Smith


I am a NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellow at the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) in the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.

I have broad and diverse research interests. My current project will investigate how climate change affects energy supply and energy demand, and whether there are missing feedbacks between integrated assessment model derived emissions pathways and climate. I enjoy playing around with climate models to determine impact-related metrics, for example how human heat stress indices might develop under different climate change pathways. I also contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project analysis for CMIP6, and worked on the FaIR simple climate model.


  1. The domain for the old interactive FaIR has been updated from to Update your bookmarks/lecture notes!
  2. There is a typo in equation 2 of Smith et al. (2021) JGRA. I'm trying to get this corrected. It should read:



  1. Fiedler, S., Naik, V., O'Connor, F.M., Smith, C.J., Griffiths, P., Kramer, R.J., Takemura, T., Allen, R.J., Im, U., Kasoar, M., Modak, A., Turnock, S., Voulgarakis, A., Watson-Parris, D., Westervelt, D. M., Wilcox, L. J., Zhao, A., Collins, W. J., Schulz, M., Myhre, G., and Forster, P. M., 2024. Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change - progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP, Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 2387-2417, DOI 10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024 (open access)
  2. Weber, J.M., King, J.A., Abraham, N.L., Grosvenor, D.P., Smith, C.J., Shin, Y.M., Lawrence, P., Roe, S., Beerling, D.J., and Val Martin, M., 2024. Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation's CO2 removal benefits, Science, 383(6685), 860-864, DOI 10.1126/science.adg6196
  3. 2023

  4. Kopp, R.E., Garner, G.G., Hermans, T.H.J., Jha, S., Kumar, P., Reedy, A., Slangen, A.B.A., Turilli, M., Edwards, T.L., Gregory, J.M., Koubbe, G., Levermann, A., Merzky, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M.D., and Smith, C., 2023: The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change, Geoscientific Model Development, 16, 7461–7489, DOI 10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 (open access)
  5. Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Smith, C.J., Kikstra, J.S., Byers, E., and Rogelj, J., 2023. Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5 (open access)
  6. Linke, O., Quaas, J., Baumer, F., Becker, S., Chylik, J., Dahlke, S., Ehrlich, A., Handorf, D., Jacobi, C., Kalesse-Los, H., Lelli, L., Mehrdad, S., Neggers, R.A.J., Riebold, J., Saavedra Garfias, P., Schnierstein, N., Shupe, M.D., Smith, C., Spreen, G., Verneuil, B., Vinjamuri, K.S., Vountas, M., and Wendisch, M., 2023. Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 9963–9992, DOI 10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023 (open access)
  7. Smith, C.J., Al Khourdajie, A., Yang, P., and Folini, D., 2023. Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon, Environmental Research Letters, 18(9), 094024, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acedc6 (open access)
  8. Zelinka, M.D., Smith, C.J., Qin, Y., and Taylor, K.E., 2023. Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 8879-8898, DOI 10.5194/acp-23-8879-2023 (open access)
  9. Fiedler, S., van Noije, T., Smith, C.J., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Kirkevåg A., Olivié, D., Pinto, R., Reerink, T., Sima, A., and Schulz, M., 2023. Historical Changes and Reasons for Model Differences in Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(15), e2023GL10484, DOI 10.1029/2023GL104848 (open access)
  10. Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., Walsh, T., Lamb, W.F., Lamboll, R., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M.D., Rogelj, J., von Schuckmann, K., Seneviratne, S.I., Trewin, B., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Birt, A., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J. A., Cheng, L., Dentener, F., Friedlingstein, P., Gutiérrez, J.M., Gütschow, J., Hall, B., Ishii, M., Jenkins, S., Lan, X., Lee, J.-Y., Morice, C., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R., Minx, J.C., Naik, V., Peters, G.P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Szopa, S., Thorne, P., Rohde, R., Rojas Corradi, M., Schumacher, D., Vose, R., Zickfeld, K., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P., 2023. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data, 15, 2295–2327, DOI 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023 (open access)
  11. Cael, B.B., Bloch-Johnson, J., Ceppi, P., Fredriksen, H.-B., Goodwin, P., Gregory, J.M., Smith, C.J., Williams, R.G., 2023. Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback. Science Advances, 9(16), eadf9302, DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adf9302 (open access)
  12. Allen, R.J., Zhao, X., Randles, C.A., Kramer, R.J., Samset, B.H., Smith, C.J., 2023. Surface warming and wetting due to methane’s long-wave radiative effects muted by short-wave absorption. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/s41561-023-01144-z (open access)
  13. Fredriksen, H.-B., Smith, C.J., Modak, A., Rugenstein, M., 2023. 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL102916, DOI 10.1029/2023GL102916 (open access)
  14. Sigmond, M., Polvani, L.M., Fyfe, J.C., Smith, C.J., Cole, J.N.S., England, M.R., 2023. Large contribution of ozone-depleting substances to global and Arctic warming in the late 20th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL100563, DOI 10.1029/2022GL100563 (open access)
  15. Rainard, M., Smith, C.J., Pachauri, S., 2023. Gender equality and climate change mitigation: Are women a secret weapon? Frontiers in Climate, 5, DOI 10.3389/fclim.2023.946712 (open access)
  16. Floess, E., Grieshop, A., Puzzolo, E., Pope, D., Leach, N., Smith, C.J., Gill-Wiehl, A., Landesman, K., Bailis, R., 2023. Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low- and middle-income countries: climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits? Environmental Research Letters, 18(3) 034010, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acb501 (open access)
  17. Ganti, G., Gidden, M.J., Smith, C.J., Fyson, C., Nauels, A., Riahi, K., Schleußner, C.F., 2023. Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach. Environmental Research Letters, 18(2), 024040, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502 (open access)
  18. Jenkins, S., Smith, C., Allen, M., Grainger, D., 2023. Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change, 13, 127-129, DOI 10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2 | Contact me for full text
  19. 2022

  20. Kikstra, J.S., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Smith, C.J., Lewis, J., Lamboll, R.D., Byers, E., Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M., Gidden, M.J., Rogelj, J., Kriegler, E., Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Skeie, R.B., Samset, B.H., Wienpahl, L., van Vuuren, D.P., van der Wijst, K.-I., Al Khourdajie, A., Forster, P.M., Reisinger, A., Schaeffer, R., Riahi, K., 2022. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 9075-9109, DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022 (open access)
  21. Smith, C.J. and Gasser, T., 2022. Modeling the non-CO2 contribution to climate change. One Earth, 5(12) 1330-1335, DOI 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.11.007 | Contact me for full text
  22. Watson-Parris, D. and Smith, C.J., 2022. Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing. Nature Climate Change 12 1111-1113. DOI 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0 | Contact me for full text
  23. Wiltshire, A., Bernie, D., Gohar, L., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Smith, C., 2022. Post COP26: does the 1.5°C climate target remain alive? Weather, 77(12) 412-417, DOI 10.1002/wea.4331 (open access)
  24. Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Rogelj, J., Kikstra, J.S., Riahi, K., Byers, E., 2022. Changes in IPCC scenario assessment emulators between SR1.5 and AR6 unraveled. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL099788. DOI 10.1029/2022GL099788 (open access)
  25. Quaas, J., Jia, H., Smith, C., Albright, A.L., Aas, W., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Forster, P.M., Grosvenor, D., Jenkins, S., Klimont, Z., Loeb, N.G., Ma, X., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Stier, P., Wild, M., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., 2022. Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22, 12221–12239. DOI 10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022 (open access)
  26. Brecha, R.J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z., Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C.J., Gidden, M.J., 2022. Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal. Nature Communications, 13, 4304. DOI 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1 (open access)
  27. Purohit, P., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Borgford-Parnell, N., Klimont, Z., Smith, C.J., 2022. The key role of propane in a sustainable cooling sector. PNAS, 119 (34) e2206131119. DOI 10.1073/pnas.2206131119 (open access)
  28. Jackson, L.S., Maycock, A.C., Andrews, T., Fredriksen, H.-B., Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., 2022. Errors in simple climate model emulations of past and future global temperature change. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL098808. DOI 10.1029/2022GL098808 (open access)
  29. Dvorak, M.T., Armour, K.C., Frierson, D.M.W., Proistosescu, C., Baker, M.B., Smith, C.J., 2022. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming. Nature Climate Change, DOI
  30. Myhre, G., Samset, B., Forster, P.M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Sandstad, M., Mohr, C.W., Sillmann, J., Stjern, C., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Iversen, T., Lamarque, J.-F., Kasoar, M., Kirkevåg, A., Kramer, R., Liu, L., Mülmenstädt, J., Olivié, D., Quaas, J., Richardson, T.B., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Smith, C., Stier, P., Tang, T., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., Watson-Parris, D., 2022. Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project. Scientific Data, 9 (123). DOI 10.1038/s41597-022-01194-9 (open access)
  31. Fewster, R.E., Morris, P.J., Ivanovic, R., Swindles, G.T., Peregon, A.M., Smith, C.J., 2022. Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7
  32. Mitchell, D.M., Stone, E.J., Andrews, O.D., Bamber, J.L., Bingham, R.J., Browse, J., Henry, M., MacLeod, D.M., Morten, J.M., Sauter, C.A., Smith, C.J., Thomas, J., Thomson, S.I., and the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon Participants, 2022. The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon. Weather, DOI 10.1002/wea.4161 (open access)
  33. Scott, K., Smith, C.J., Lowe, J.A., and Garcia-Carreras, L., 2022. Demand vs supply-side approaches to mitigation: What final energy demand assumptions are made to meet 1.5 and 2 °C targets? Global Environmental Change, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102448 (open access)
  34. Lyon, C., Saupe, E.E., Smith, C.J., Hill, D.J., Beckerman, A.P., Stringer, L.C., Marchant, R., McKay, J., Burke, A., O'Higgins, P., Dunhill, A.M., Allen, B.J., Riel-Salvatore, J., and Aze, T., 2022. Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100, Global Change Biology, 28, 349-361, DOI 10.1111/gcb.15871 (open access)
  35. 2021

  36. Dong, Y., Armour, K.C., Proistosescu, C., Andrews, T., Battisti, D.S., Forster, P.M., Paynter, D., Smith, C.J., and Shiogama, H., 2021. Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095778, DOI 10.1029/2021GL095778
  37. Smith, C.J. and Forster, P.M., 2021. Suppressed Late-20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks, Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (19), e2021GL094948, DOI 10.1029/2021GL094948 (open access)
  38. Smith, C.J., Harris, G., Palmer, M., Bellouin, N., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ringer, M., Storelvmo, T., Forster, P., 2021. Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033622, DOI 10.1029/2020JD033622 (open access). Note announcement above.
  39. Huppmann, D., Gidden, M.J., Nicholls, Z., Hörsch, J., Burandt, T., Fricko, O., Byers, E., Kikstra, J., Brinkerink, M., Budzinski, M., Maczek, F., Zwickl-Bernhard, S., Welder, L., Francisco Álvarez Quispe, E., Smith, C.J., 2021. Analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios. Open Research Europe 1, 74. DOI 10.12688/openreseurope.13633.2 (open access)
  40. Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Rojas Corradi, M., Dorheim, K., Gasser, T., Gieseke, R., Hope, A.P., Leach, N.J., McBride, L.A., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J., Salawitch, R.J., Samset, B.H., Sandstad, M., Shiklomanov, A., Skeie, R.B., Smith, C.J., Smith, S.J., Su, X., Tsutsui, J., Vega-Westhoff, B, Woodard, D.L., 2021. Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections. Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001900, DOI 10.1029/2020EF001900 (open access)
  41. Leach, N. J., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., and Allen, M. R., 2021. FaIRv2.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration, Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 3007-3036, DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021 (open access)
  42. Edwards, T.L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B. et al., (84 authors) 2021. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature 593, 74–82. DOI 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
  43. Kramer, R.J., He, H., Soden, B.J., Oreopoulos, L., Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., 2021. Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091585. DOI 10.1029/2020GL091585
  44. Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Rap A., Rutherford O., 2021. On the structure of instantaneous radiative forcing kernels for greenhouse gases. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 78, 3, 949-965, DOI
  45. Dow W., Maycock A.C., Lofverstrom M., Smith C.J., 2021. The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Aleutian Low. Journal of Climate 34, 5, 1725-1741, DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0423.1
  46. Andrews, T., Smith, C. J., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Chadwick, R., Ackerley, D., 2021. Effective radiative forcing in a GCM with fixed surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033880. DOI 10.1029/2020JD033880
  47. Thornhill, G., Collins, W., Olivié, D., Archibald, A., Bauer, S., Checa-Garcia, R., Fiedler, S., Folberth, G., Gjermundsen, A., Horowitz, L., Lamarque, J.-F., Michou, M., Mulcahy, J., Nabat, P., Naik, V., O'Connor, F. M., Paulot, F., Schulz, M., Scott, C. E., Seferian, R., Smith, C., Takemura, T., Tilmes, S., and Weber, J., 2021. Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmos Chem Phys 21, 1105-1126, DOI 10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021 (open access)
  48. Thornhill, G.D., Collins, W.J., Kramer, R.J., Olivié, D., Skeie, R.B., O'Connor, F.M., Abraham, N.L., Checa-Garcia, R., Bauer, S.E., Deushi, M., Emmons, L.K., Forster, P.M., Horowitz, L.W., Johnson, B., Keeble, J., Lamarque, J.-F., Michou, M., Mills, M.J., Mulcahy, J.P., Myhre, G., Nabat, P., Naik, V., Oshima, N., Schulz, M., Smith, C.J., Takemura, T., Tilmes, S., Wu, T., Zeng, G., and Zhang, J., 2021. Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison. Atmos Chem Phys, 21, 853-874, DOI 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021 (open access)
  49. Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Rogelj, J., Smith, C.J., MacDougall, A.H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., and Knutti, R., 2021. An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Commun Earth Environ 2, 7, DOI 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 (open access)
  50. 2020

  51. McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., and Tokarska, K.B., 2020. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9
  52. Hodnebrog Ø., Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Shine K.P., Andrews T., Faluvegi G., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., and Voulgarakis A. 2020. The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3(1), DOI 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x (open access)
  53. Nicholls Z.R.J., Meinshausen M., Lewis J., Gieseke R., Dommenget D., Dorheim K., Fan C.-S., Fuglestvedt J.S., Gasser T., Golüke U., Goodwin P., Hartin C., Hope A.P., Kriegler E., Leach N.J., Marchegiani D., McBride L.A., Quilcaille Y., Rogelj J., Salawitch R.J., Samset B.H., Sandstad M., Shiklomanov A.N., Skeie R.B., Smith C.J., Smith S., Tanaka K., Tsutsui J., and Xie Z. 2020. Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response, Geoscientific Model Development, 13(11), 5175-5190, DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020 (open access)
  54. Marshall, L. R., Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Aubry, T. J., Andrews, T., and Schmidt, A., 2020. Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090241, DOI 10.1029/2020GL090241 (open access)
  55. Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., and Sima, A., 2020. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere, Earth System Science Data, 12, 2157-2168, DOI 10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020 (open access)
  56. Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M., 2020. Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 9591-9618, DOI 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020 (open access)
  57. Forster, P. M., Forster, H. I., Evans, M. J., Gidden, M. J., Jones, C. D., Keller, C. A., Lamboll, R. D., Le Quéré, C., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Schleussner, C. F., Richardson, T. B., Smith, C. J. and Turnock, S. T., 2020. Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
  58. Bellouin, N., Davies, W., Shine, K. P., Quaas, J., Mülmenstädt, J., Forster, P. M., Smith, C., Lee, L., Regayre, L., Brasseur, G., Sudarchikova, N., Bouarar, I., Boucher, O., and Myhre, G., 2020. Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition, Earth System Science Data, 12, DOI 10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020 (open access)
  59. Dittus, A., Hawkins, E., Wilcox, L.J., Sutton, R.T., Smith, C.J., Andrews, M.B., and Forster, P.M. 2020. Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing., 2020. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, DOI 10.1029/2019GL085806 (open access)
  60. Watson-Parris, D., Bellouin, N., Deaconu, L., Schutgens, N., Yoshioka, M., Regayre, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Johnson, J. S., Smith, C. J., Carslaw, K. S. and Stier, P., 2020. Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 10.1029/2020GL087141
  61. Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F. and Knutti, R., 2020. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models, Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 (open access)
  62. Forster, P. M., Maycock, A. C., McKenna, C. M. and Smith, C. J., 2020. Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation. Nature Climate Change (commentary), 10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0
  63. 2019

  64. Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Smith, C. J., Maycock, A. C., Wood, T., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kasoar, M., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Mülmenstädt, J., Myhre, G., Olivié, D., Portmann, R. W., Samset, B. H., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Stier, P., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Watson-Parris, D. 2019. Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2019JD030581 (open access)
  65. Denison, S., Forster, P. M. and Smith, C. J., 2019. Guidance on emissions metrics for nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12), DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4df4 (open access)
  66. Shindell, D. and Smith, C. J., 2019. Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels. Nature, 573, DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1554-z
  67. Rogelj, J., Forster, P. M., Kriegler, E., Smith, C. J. and Séférian, R., 2019. A framework to estimate and track remaining carbon budgets for stringent climate targets. Nature, 571, DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
  68. Stjern, C.W., Lund, M.T., Samset, B.H., Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Sand, M., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Smith, C.J., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., 2019. Arctic amplification response to individual climate drivers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2018JD029726 (open access)
  69. Allen, R.J., Amiri-Farahani, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Smith, C., Shindell, D., Hassan, T., Chung, C.E., 2019. Observationally constrained aerosol–cloud semi-direct effects. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2 (16), DOI 10.1038/s41612-019-0073-9 (open access)
  70. Tang T., Shindell D., Faluvegi G., Myhre G., Olivié D., Voulgarakis A., Kasoar M., Andrews T., Boucher O., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog Ø., Iversen T., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Richardson T., Samset B.H., Stjern C.W., Takemura T., Smith C., 2019. Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2018JD030188
  71. Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Millar, R.J., Rogelj, J., Zickfeld, K., 2019. Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet limit us to 1.5°C warming. Nature Communications, 10, DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w (open access)
  72. 2018

  73. Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Smith C.J., Hodnebrog Ø., Forster P., Soden B.J., Samset B.H., Stjern C.W., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Fläschner D., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Olivié D., Richardson T., Shindell D., Stier P., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson‐Parris D., 2018. Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, DOI 10.1029/2018GL079474 (open access)
  74. Smith C.J., Kramer R., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Soden B., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Fläschner D., Hodnebrog Ø., Kasoar M., Kharin V., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Richardson T., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Stier P., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson-Parris D., 2018. Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, DOI 10.1029/2018GL079826 (open access)
  75. Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R.J., Passerello, G.A., Regayre, L.A., 2018. FAIR v1.3: A simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geosci. Model Dev., DOI 10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018 (open access)
  76. Samset B.H., Sand M., Smith C.J., Bauer S.E., Forster P.M., Fuglestvedt J.S., Osprey S., Schleussner C.-F., 2018. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI 10.1002/2017GL076079 (open access)
  77. 2017

  78. Stjern C.W., Samset B.H., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog O., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Iversen T., Kasoar M., Kharin V., Kirkevag A., Lamarque J.F., Olivie D., Richardson T.B., Shawki D., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., 2017. Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. DOI 10.1002/2017JD027326 (open access)
  79. Smith, C.J., Crook J.A., Crook R., Jackson L.S., Osprey S.M., Forster P.M., 2017. Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56, pp. 1483-1497. DOI 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0298.1 (open access)
  80. Smith, C.J., Bright J.M., Crook, R., 2017. Cloud cover effect of clear-sky index distributions and differences between human and automatic cloud observations. Solar Energy 144, pp. 10-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2016.12.055
  81. Kovács T., Feng W., Totterdill A., Plane J.M.C., Dhomse S., Gómez-Martín J.C., Stiller G.P., Haenel F.J., Smith C., Forster P.M., García R.R., Marsh D.R., Chipperfield M.P., 2017. Determination of the atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of sulfur hexafluoride using a three-dimensional model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, pp. 883-898. DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-883-2017 (open access)
  82. 2016

  83. Forster, P.M., Richardson T., Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Samset B.H., Myhre G., Andrews T., Pincus R., Schulz M., 2016. Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, pp. 12460-12475, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025320 (open access)
  84. Totterdill, A., Kovács T., Feng W., Dhomse S., Smith C.J., Gómez-Martín J.C., Chipperfield M.P., Forster P.M., Plane J.M.C., 2016. Atmospheric lifetimes, infrared absorption spectra, radiative forcings and global warming potentials of NF3 and CF3CF2Cl (CFC-115), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, pp. 11451-11463, DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-11451-2016 (open access)
  85. Smith, C.J., Forster P.M., Crook R., 2016. An all-sky radiative transfer method to predict optimal tilt and azimuth angle of a solar collector. Solar Energy 123, pp. 88-101. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2015.11.013
  86. earlier

  87. Bright, J.M., Smith C.J., Taylor P.G., Crook R., 2015. Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data. Solar Energy 115, pp. 229-242. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2015.02.032
  88. Smith, C.J., Forster P.M., Crook R., 2014. Global analysis of photovoltaic energy output enhanced by phase change material cooling. Applied Energy 126, pp. 21-28. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.03.083