Chris Smith


I am a research fellow at the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) in the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds.

Current projects:

  1. SMURPHS: Determination of the causes of surge and hiatus events in climate change over the last 100 years, with particular focus given to the temperature slowdown of 1998-2012.
  2. RFMIP: The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) will (amongst other things) evaluate the effective radiative forcing in participating CMIP6 climate models. This will help to determine the differences in climate model responses.
  3. CAMS74: Investigating structural uncertainty resulting from background climatology and radiative transfer parameterisation for the radiative forcing product from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.
  4. PDRMIP: Determination of forcing, rapid adjustments and feedbacks to single-forcing experiments. Also producing some of the forcing experiments using the Met Office's HadGEM2-ES climate model.

My current research interests are climate modelling, radiative transfer and radiative forcing.



  1. Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Rogelj, J., Smith, C.J., MacDougall, A.H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., and Knutti, R., 2021. An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Commun Earth Environ 2, 7, DOI 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9


  2. Thornhill, G., Collins, W., Olivié, D., Archibald, A., Bauer, S., Checa-Garcia, R., Fiedler, S., Folberth, G., Gjermundsen, A., Horowitz, L., Lamarque, J.-F., Michou, M., Mulcahy, J., Nabat, P., Naik, V., O'Connor, F. M., Paulot, F., Schulz, M., Scott, C. E., Seferian, R., Smith, C., Takemura, T., Tilmes, S., and Weber, J.: Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, DOI 10.5194/acp-2019-1207, in review (open access)
  3. Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Rap A., Rutherford O. 2020. On the structure of instantaneous radiative forcing kernels for greenhouse gases. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
  4. Dow W, Maycock AC, Lofverstrom M, Smith C. 2020. The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Aleutian Low. Journal of Climate.
  5. Preprints under review

  6. Andrews, T., Smith, C.J., Myhre, G., Forster, P., and Chadwick, R.: Effective radiative forcing in a GCM with fixed surface temperatures, ESSOAr, DOI 10.1002/essoar.10504260.1, in review (open access)
  7. Smith, C., Harris, G., Palmer, M., Bellouin, N., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ringer, M., Storelvmo, T., Forster, P., Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity, ESSOAr, DOI 10.1002/essoar.10503977.2
  8. Leach, N. J., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., and Allen, M. R.: FaIRv2.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, DOI 10.5194/gmd-2020-390, in review (open access)
  9. 2020

  10. McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., and Tokarska, K.B., 2020. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9
  11. Hodnebrog Ø., Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Shine K.P., Andrews T., Faluvegi G., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., and Voulgarakis A. 2020. The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3(1), DOI 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x (open access)
  12. Nicholls Z.R.J., Meinshausen M., Lewis J., Gieseke R., Dommenget D., Dorheim K., Fan C.-S., Fuglestvedt J.S., Gasser T., Golüke U., Goodwin P., Hartin C., Hope A.P., Kriegler E., Leach N.J., Marchegiani D., McBride L.A., Quilcaille Y., Rogelj J., Salawitch R.J., Samset B.H., Sandstad M., Shiklomanov A.N., Skeie R.B., Smith C.J., Smith S., Tanaka K., Tsutsui J., and Xie Z. 2020. Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response, Geoscientific Model Development, 13(11), 5175-5190, DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020 (open access)
  13. Marshall, L. R., Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Aubry, T. J., Andrews, T., and Schmidt, A., 2020. Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090241, DOI 10.1029/2020GL090241 (open access)
  14. Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., and Sima, A., 2020. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere, Earth System Science Data, 12, 2157-2168, DOI 10.5194/essd-12-2157-2020 (open access)
  15. Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M., 2020. Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 9591-9618, DOI 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020 (open access)
  16. Forster, P. M., Forster, H. I., Evans, M. J., Gidden, M. J., Jones, C. D., Keller, C. A., Lamboll, R. D., Le Quéré, C., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Schleussner, C. F., Richardson, T. B., Smith, C. J. and Turnock, S. T., 2020. Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, DOI 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
  17. Bellouin, N., Davies, W., Shine, K. P., Quaas, J., Mülmenstädt, J., Forster, P. M., Smith, C., Lee, L., Regayre, L., Brasseur, G., Sudarchikova, N., Bouarar, I., Boucher, O., and Myhre, G., 2020. Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition, Earth System Science Data, 12, DOI 10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020 (open access)
  18. Dittus, A., Hawkins, E., Wilcox, L.J., Sutton, R.T., Smith, C.J., Andrews, M.B., and Forster, P.M. 2020. Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing., 2020. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, DOI 10.1029/2019GL085806 (open access)
  19. Watson-Parris, D., Bellouin, N., Deaconu, L., Schutgens, N., Yoshioka, M., Regayre, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Johnson, J. S., Smith, C. J., Carslaw, K. S. and Stier, P., 2020. Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 10.1029/2020GL087141
  20. Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F. and Knutti, R., 2020. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models, Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 (open access)
  21. Forster, P. M., Maycock, A. C., McKenna, C. M. and Smith, C. J., 2020. Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation. Nature Climate Change (commentary), 10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0
  22. 2019

  23. Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Smith, C. J., Maycock, A. C., Wood, T., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kasoar, M., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Mülmenstädt, J., Myhre, G., Olivié, D., Portmann, R. W., Samset, B. H., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Stier, P., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Watson-Parris, D. 2019. Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2019JD030581 (open access)
  24. Denison, S., Forster, P. M. and Smith, C. J., 2019. Guidance on emissions metrics for nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12), DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4df4 (open access)
  25. Shindell, D. and Smith, C. J., 2019. Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels. Nature, 573, DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1554-z
  26. Rogelj, J., Forster, P. M., Kriegler, E., Smith, C. J. and Séférian, R., 2019. A framework to estimate and track remaining carbon budgets for stringent climate targets. Nature, 571, DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
  27. Stjern, C.W., Lund, M.T., Samset, B.H., Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Iversen, T., Kasoar, M., Kharin, V., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D., Richardson, T., Sand, M., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Smith, C.J., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., 2019. Arctic amplification response to individual climate drivers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2018JD029726 (open access)
  28. Allen, R.J., Amiri-Farahani, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Smith, C., Shindell, D., Hassan, T., Chung, C.E., 2019. Observationally constrained aerosol–cloud semi-direct effects. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2 (16), DOI 10.1038/s41612-019-0073-9 (open access)
  29. Tang T., Shindell D., Faluvegi G., Myhre G., Olivié D., Voulgarakis A., Kasoar M., Andrews T., Boucher O., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog Ø., Iversen T., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Richardson T., Samset B.H., Stjern C.W., Takemura T., Smith C., 2019. Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, DOI 10.1029/2018JD030188
  30. Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Fuglestvedt, J., Millar, R.J., Rogelj, J., Zickfeld, K., 2019. Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet limit us to 1.5°C warming. Nature Communications, 10, DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w (open access)
  31. 2018

  32. Myhre G., Kramer R.J., Smith C.J., Hodnebrog Ø., Forster P., Soden B.J., Samset B.H., Stjern C.W., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Fläschner D., Kasoar M., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Olivié D., Richardson T., Shindell D., Stier P., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson‐Parris D., 2018. Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, DOI 10.1029/2018GL079474 (open access)
  33. Smith C.J., Kramer R., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Soden B., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Fläschner D., Hodnebrog Ø., Kasoar M., Kharin V., Kirkevåg A., Lamarque J.-F., Mülmenstädt J., Olivié D., Richardson T., Samset B.H., Shindell D., Stier P., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., Watson-Parris D., 2018. Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, DOI 10.1029/2018GL079826 (open access)
  34. Smith, C.J., Forster, P.M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R.J., Passerello, G.A., Regayre, L.A., 2018. FAIR v1.3: A simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geosci. Model Dev., DOI 10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018 (open access)
  35. Samset B.H., Sand M., Smith C.J., Bauer S.E., Forster P.M., Fuglestvedt J.S., Osprey S., Schleussner C.-F., 2018. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI 10.1002/2017GL076079 (open access)
  36. 2017

  37. Stjern C.W., Samset B.H., Myhre G., Forster P.M., Hodnebrog O., Andrews T., Boucher O., Faluvegi G., Iversen T., Kasoar M., Kharin V., Kirkevag A., Lamarque J.F., Olivie D., Richardson T.B., Shawki D., Shindell D., Smith C.J., Takemura T., Voulgarakis A., 2017. Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. DOI 10.1002/2017JD027326 (open access)
  38. Smith, C.J., Crook J.A., Crook R., Jackson L.S., Osprey S.M., Forster P.M., 2017. Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56, pp. 1483-1497. DOI 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0298.1 (open access)
  39. Smith, C.J., Bright J.M., Crook, R., 2017. Cloud cover effect of clear-sky index distributions and differences between human and automatic cloud observations. Solar Energy 144, pp. 10-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2016.12.055
  40. Kovács T., Feng W., Totterdill A., Plane J.M.C., Dhomse S., Gómez-Martín J.C., Stiller G.P., Haenel F.J., Smith C., Forster P.M., García R.R., Marsh D.R., Chipperfield M.P., 2017. Determination of the atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of sulfur hexafluoride using a three-dimensional model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, pp. 883-898. DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-883-2017 (open access)
  41. 2016

  42. Forster, P.M., Richardson T., Maycock A.C., Smith C.J., Samset B.H., Myhre G., Andrews T., Pincus R., Schulz M., 2016. Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, pp. 12460-12475, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025320 (open access)
  43. Totterdill, A., Kovács T., Feng W., Dhomse S., Smith C.J., Gómez-Martín J.C., Chipperfield M.P., Forster P.M., Plane J.M.C., 2016. Atmospheric lifetimes, infrared absorption spectra, radiative forcings and global warming potentials of NF3 and CF3CF2Cl (CFC-115), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, pp. 11451-11463, DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-11451-2016 (open access)
  44. Smith, C.J., Forster P.M., Crook R., 2016. An all-sky radiative transfer method to predict optimal tilt and azimuth angle of a solar collector. Solar Energy 123, pp. 88-101. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2015.11.013
  45. earlier

  46. Bright, J.M., Smith C.J., Taylor P.G., Crook R., 2015. Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data. Solar Energy 115, pp. 229-242. DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2015.02.032
  47. Smith, C.J., Forster P.M., Crook R., 2014. Global analysis of photovoltaic energy output enhanced by phase change material cooling. Applied Energy 126, pp. 21-28. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.03.083