Google Scholar profile


Likoya, E., C. E. Birch, S. Chapman, A. Dougill, 2022: Austral summer droughts and their driving mechanisms in observations and present-day climate simulations over Malawi, Int. J. Climatology, in review.

Fletcher, J., A. Diop, D. J. Parker, L. Youds, E. Adefisan, M. Ahiataku, S. Ansah, C. E. Birch, et al. 2022: Tropical Africa's first testbed for high-impact weather forecasting and nowcasting, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in review.

Bradshaw, C. et al. 2022: Unprecedented climate extremes in South Africa for maize production, Env. Res. Lett., in review.

Chapman, S., J. Bacon, C. E. Birch, E. Pope, J. H. Marsham, H. Msemo, E. Nkonde, K. Sinachikupo, C. Vanya, 2022: Climate change impacts on extreme rainfall in Eastern Africa in a convection permitting climate model, J. Climate, in review.

Chapman, C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, C. Part, S. Hajat, M. F. Chersich, S. Luchters, B. Nakstad, S. Kovats, 2022: Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa, Env. Res. Lett.,

Birch, C. E., L. S. Jackson, D. L. Finney, J. H. Marsham, R. A. Stratton, S. Tucker, S. Chapman, C. A. Senior, R. J. Keane, F. Guichard, E. J. Kendon, 2022: Future changes in African heatwaves and their drivers at the convective scale, J. Climate,

Parker, D. J., A. M. Blyth, S. J. Woolnough, A. J. Dougill, C. L. Bain, E. de Coning, M. Diop-Kane, A. K. Foamouhoue, B. Lamptey, O. Ndiaye, P. Ruti, E. A. Adefisan, L. K. Amekudzi, P. Antwi-Agyei, C. E. Birch, et al. 2022: The African SWIFT Project: Growing Science Capability to bring about a Revolution in Weather Prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,


Peatman, S. C., J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, A. J. Matthews, G.-Y. Yang, 2021: A local-to-large scale view of Maritime Continent rainfall: control by ENSO, MJO and equatorial waves, J. Climate,

Chapman, S., C. E. Birch, M. Galdos, E. Pope, J. Davie, C. Bradshaw, S. Eze, J. Marsham, 2021: Assessing the impact of climate change on soil erosion in East Africa using a convection-permitting climate model , Env. Res. Lett.,

Msemo, H. E., A. L. Taylor, C. E. Birch, A. J. Dougill, A. Hartley, 2021: The value of weather and climate information to the Tanzania disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches, Weather, Climate and Society,

Fletcher, J. K., C. E. Birch, R. J. Keane, C. M. Taylor, S. S Folwell, 2021: The effect of Ganges river basin irrigation on pre-monsoon rainfall, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,

Woodhams, B. J., P. A. Barrett, J. H. Marsham, C. E. Birch, C. L. Bain, J. K. Fletcher, A. J. Hartley, S. Webster, S. Mangeni, 2021: Aircraft observations of the lake-land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,

Senior, C. A. et al. 2021: Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,

Cafaro, C., B. Woodhams, T. Stein, C. E. Birch, S. Webster, C. Bain, A. Hartley, S. Clarke, S. Ferrett, P. Hill, 2021: Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?, Weat. Forecasting,

Birch, C. E., B. L. Rabb, K. L. Shelton, S. Boeing, R. Lamb, N. Hunter, M. Trigg, A. Hines, A. Taylor, M. Dale, 2021: Enhanced Surface Water Flood Forecasts: User-led Development and Testing, J. Flood Risk Management,

Msemo, H. E., A. L. Taylor, C. E. Birch, A. J. Dougill, A. Hartley, B. J. Woodhams, 2021: What do weather disasters cost? An analysis of weather impacts in Tanzania, Frontiers in Climate,

Hardy, S., J. Schwendike, R. K. Smith, C. J. Short, M. J. Reeder, C. E. Birch, 2021: The role of vacillation cycles in the rapid intensification of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016), Mon. Weat. Rev.,


Boeing, S. J., C. E. Birch, B. L. Rabb, K. L. Shelton, 2020: A percentile-based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface-water flood forecasts, Meteorol. App.,

Walker, D. P., J. H. Marsham, C. E. Birch, A. A. Scaife, D. L. Finney, 2020: Common mechanism for inter-annual and decadal variability in the East African long rains, Geophys. Res. Lett.,

Chapman, S., C. E. Birch, E. Pope, S. Sallu, C. Bradshaw, J. Davie, J. Marsham, 2020: Impact of climate change on crop suitability in sub-Saharan Africa in parameterized and convection permitting regional climate models, Env. Res. Lett.,


Finney, D. L., J. H. Marsham, D. Walker, C. E. Birch, B. Woodhams, L. Jackson, S. Hardy, 2020: The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,

Woodhams, B. J., C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, T. P. Lane, C. L. Bain, S. Webster, 2019: Identifying Key Controls on Storm Formation over the Lake Victoria Basin, Mon. Weat. Rev.,

Keane, R. J., K. Williams, A. Stirling, G. Martin, C. E. Birch, D. J. Parker, 2019: Fast biases in Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model, J. Clim., .

Walker, D. P., C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, A. A. Scaife, R. J. Graham, Z. T Segele, 2019: Skill of dynamical and GHACOF consensus seasonal forecasts of East African rainfall, Clim. Dyn.,

Fletcher, J. K., D. J. Parker, A. G. Turner, A. Menon, G. M. Martin, C. E. Birch, A. Mitra, M. Govindankutty, K. M. R. Hunt, C. M. Taylor, R. A. Houze, S. R. Brodzik, G. S. Bhat, J. H. Marsham, 2018: The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the monsoon over southern India: New observations from the INCOMPASS IOP, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,


Woodhams, B., C. E. Birch, J. Marsham, C. Bain, 2018: What is the added-value of a convection-permitting model for forecasting extreme rainfall over tropical East Africa? Mon. Weat. Rev.,

Dessai, S., A. Bhave, C. E. Birch, D. Conway, L. Garcia-Carreras, J. P. Gosling, N. Mittal, D. Stainforth, 2018: Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation, Env. Res. Lett.,


Ackerley, D., C. E. Birch, L. Garcia-Carreras, S. Lavender, E. Weller, 2017: The physical processes that cause nocturnal rainfall over north-west Australia and their representation in models with parameterized convection, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 10.1002/qj.3223.

Bourgeois, E., D. Bouniol, F. Couvreux, F. Guichard, J. Marsham, L, Garcia-Carreras, C. E. Birch, D. Parker, 2017: Characterisitics of mid-level clouds over West Africa, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 10.1002/qj.3215.

White, B. A., A. M. Buchanan, C. E. Birch, P. Stier, K. J. Pearson, 2017: Quantifying the effects of horizontal grid length and parameterised convection on the degree of convective organisation, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0307.1.

Brooks, I. M., M. Tjernström, P. O. G. Persson, M. D. Shupe, R. A. Atkinson, G. Canut, C. E. Birch, T. Mauritsen, J. Sedlar, J. Brooks, 2017: The turbulent structure of the Arctic summer boundary layer during ASCOS, J. Geophys. Res., DOI:10.1002/2017JD027234.

Diop-Kane, M. D. J. Parker, 2017: Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters' Handbook. Chapter 10: Numerical Weather Prediction over Africa, by S. Milton, A. Diongue-Niang, B. Lamptey, C. Bain, C. E. Birch, John Wiley and Sons Ltd, p380-422.

Willetts, P. D., J. H. Marsham, C. E. Birch, D. J. Parker, S. Webster, J. Petch, 2017: Moist convection and its upscale effects in the Indian Monsoon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., DOI:10.1002/qj.2991.

Willetts, P. D., A. Turner, G. Martin, G. Mrudula, K. Hunt, D. Parker, C. Taylor, C. E. Birch, A. Mitra, 2016: The 2015 Indian summer monsoon onset - Phenomena, forecasting and research flight planning, Weather, DOI:10.1002/wea.2819.


Trigg, M., C. E. Birch, J. Neal, P. Bates, A. Smith, C. Sampson, D. Yamazaki, Y. Hirabayashi, F. Pappenberger, E. Dutra, P. Ward, H. Winsemius, P. Salamon, F. Dottori, R. Rudari, M. Kappes, A. Simpson, G. Hadzilacos, T. Fewtrell, 2016: How much do we really know about river flooding? Env. Sci. J. For Teens,, October 2016.

Trigg, M., C. E. Birch, J. Neal, P. Bates, A. Smith, C. Sampson, D. Yamazaki, Y. Hirabayashi, F. Pappenberger, E. Dutra, P. Ward, H. Winsemius, P. Salamon, F. Dottori, R. Rudari, M. Kappes, A. Simpson, G. Hadzilacos, T. Fewtrell, 2016: The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014.

Parker, D. J., P. Willetts, C. E. Birch, A. G. Turner, J. H. Marsham, C. M. Taylor, S. Kolusu, G. M. Martin, 2016: The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2815.

Birch, C. E., S. Webster, S. C. Peatman, D. J. Parker, A. J. Matthews, Y. Li, M. E. Hassim, 2016: Scale interactions between the MJO and the Maritime Continent, J. Climate. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0557.1. pdf

Provod, M., J. H. Marsham, D. J. Parker, C. E. Birch, 2015: A characterization of cold pools in the West African Sahel, Mon. Weat. Rev., doi: .


Schmidt, A., S. Leadbetter, N. Theys, E. Carboni, J. A. Stevenson, T. Thordarson, C. S. Witham, M. Hort, S. Turnock, C. E. Birch, W. Feng, N. A. D. Richards, I. Ialongo, T. Johannsson, P. Kenny, L. Delaney, 2015: Satellite detection, long-range transport and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the 2014-2015 flood lava eruption at Baroarbunga (Iceland), J. Geophys. Res., DOI:10.1002/2015JD023638.

Birch, C. E., M. Roberts, L. Garcia-Carreras, D. Ackerley, M. Reeder, A. Lock, 2015: Sea breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterisation on model biases, J. Climate, pdf

Stein, T. H. M., D. J. Parker, R. J. Hogan, C. E. Birch, C. E. Holloway, G. Lister, J. H. Marsham, S. J. Woolnough, 2015: The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: An evaluation with CloudSat, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1002/qj.2614.

Fiedler, S., P. Knippertz, S. Woodward, G. Martin, N. Bellouin, C. Birch, B. Heinold, K. Schepanski, I. Tegen, 2015: A process-based evaluation of winds important for dust emission in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES, Clim. Dym., 10.1007/s00382-015-2635-9.

Garcia-Carreras, L., A. J. Challinor, B. J. Parkes, C. E. Birch, K. J. Nicklin, 2015: The impact of parameterised convection on the simulation of crop processes, J. Appl. Met. Clim.,

Pantillon, F., P. Knippertz, J. Marsham, C. E. Birch, 2015: A parameterization of convective dust storms for models with mass-flux convective schemes, J. Atmos. Sci.,


Birch, C. E., J. H. Marsham, D. J. Parker, C. M. Taylor, 2014: The scale-dependence and structure of convergence fields preceding the initiation of deep convection, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2014GL060493. pdf

Birch, C. E., M. J. Reeder, G. J. Berry, 2014: Wave-cloud lines over the Arabian Sea, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1002/2013JD021347. pdf

Procter, N., C. E. Birch, G. Monk, J. H. Marsham, 2014: Verification of Mountain Weather Information Service forecasts for three upland areas in the UK, Weather, doi: 10.1002/wea.2314. pdf

Birch, C. E., D. J. Parker, J. H. Marsham, D. Copsey, L. Garcia-Carreras, 2014: A seamless assessment of the role of convection in the water cycle of the West African Monsoon, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1002/2013JD020887. pdf

Browse, J., K. S. Carslaw, G. Mann, C. E. Birch,, S.R. Arnold, C. Leck, 2014: The complex response to Arctic CCN to sea-ice retreat, Atmos. Chem. Phys. , doi:10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014.

Tjernström, M., C. Leck, C. E. Birch,, J. W. Bottenheim, B. Brooks, I. Brooks, L. Bäcklin, R. Chang, E. Granath, M. Graus, A. Hansel, J. Heintzenberg, A. Held, A. Hind, S. de la Rosa Høhn, P. Johnston, J. Knulst., G. de Leeuw, L. Di Liberto, M. Martin, P. Matrai, T. Mauritsen, M. Müller, S. Norris, M. Orellana, D. Orsini, J. Paatero, O. Persson, G. Qiuji, C. Rauschenberg, Z. Ristovski, J. Sedlar, M. Shupe, B. Sierau, A. Sirevaag, S. Sjogren, O. Stetzer, E. Swietlicki, M. Szczodrak, P. Vaattovaara, N. Wahlberg, M. Westberg, C. Wheeler, 2014: The Arctic Summer Cloud-Ocean Study (ASCOS): Overview and experimental design, Atmos. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-14-2823-2014.


Taylor, C. M., C. E. Birch, D. J. Parker, N. Dixon, F. Guichard, G. Nikulin, G. M. S. Lister, 2013: Modelling soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in the Sahel: importance of spatial scale versus convective parameterization, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2013GL058511.

Marsham, J. H., N. Dixon, L. Garcia-Carreras, G. M. S. Lister, D. J. Parker, P. Knippertz, C. E. Birch, 2013: The role of moist convection in the West African monsoon system - insights from continental-scale convection-permitting simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1843-1849, doi:10.1002/grl.50347.

Pearson, K. J., G. M. S. Lister, C. E. Birch, R. P. Allan, R. J. Hogan, S. J. Woolnough, 2013: Modelling the diurnal cycle of tropical convection across the "Grey Zone", Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2145.

Birch, C. E., D. J. Parker, A. O'Leary, C. M. Taylor, J. H. Marsham, P. Harris, G. Lister, 2013: The impact of soil moisture and atmospheric waves on the development of a mesoscale convective system: A model study of an observed AMMA case, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1712-1730, doi:10.1002/qj.2062, (winner of the 2013 L F Richardson Prize of the Royal Meteorological Society). pdf

Birch, C. E., M. J. Reeder, 2013: Wave-cloud lines over northwest Australia, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1311-1326, doi:10.1002/qj.2043. pdf


Tjernström, M., C. E. Birch, I. M. Brooks, C. Leck, T. Mauritsen, J. Paatero, O. Persson, J. Sedlar, M. D. Shupe, M. Szczodrak, C. R. Wheeler, 2012: Meteorological conditions in the central Arctic summer during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 6863-6889, doi:10.5194/acp-12-6863-2012.

Birch, C. E., I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, M. D. Shupe, S. F. Milton, P. Earnshaw, T. Mauritsen, J. Sedlar, P. O. G. Persson and C. Leck, 2012: Modelling atmospheric structure, cloud and their response to CCN in the central Arctic: ASCOS case studies, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3419-3435, doi:10.5194/acp-12-3419-2012. pdf

Birch, C. E., D. J. Parker, J. H. Marsham, G. M. Devine, 2012: The effect of orography and surface albedo on stratification in the summertime Saharan atmospheric boundary layer: dynamics and implications for dust transport, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05105, doi:10.1029/2011JD015965. pdf


Norris, S. J., I. M. Brooks, D. Leeuw, A. Sirevaag, C. Leck, B. J. Brooks, C. E. Birch, M. Tjernström, T. G. Leighton, 2011: Measurements of bubble size spectra within leads in the Arctic summer pack ice, Ocean Sci., 7, 129-139, doi:10.5194/os-7-129-2011.

Sedlar, J., M. Tjernström, T. Mauritsen, M. D. Shupe, I. M. Brooks, P. O. G. Persson, C. E. Birch, C. Leck, A. Sirevaag and M. Nicolaus, 2011: A transitioning Arctic surface energy budget: the impacts of solar zenith angle, surface albedo and cloud radiative forcing, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1643-1660, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0937-5.


Birch, C. E., I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, S. F. Milton, P. Earnshaw, S. Söderberg and P. O. G. Persson, 2009: The performance of a global and mesoscale model over the central Arctic Ocean during late summer, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D13104, doi:10.1029/2008JD010790. pdf

PhD thesis

Surface-Atmosphere coupling over the central Arctic Ocean, University of Leeds, October 2009.