Measuring, predicting and adapting to aflatoxin risk under climate variability and change
Mycotoxins contaminate approximately 25% of the worlds food
supply. Aflatoxins are potent carcinogenic and toxic mycotoxins with
adverse effects on health and trade and the levels of contamination are
strongly influenced by weather. This project, lead by Andy Challinor and
with
partners in the Faculty of Medicine and Health
, the Université de THIES in Senegal and the
International Institute for Tropical Agriculture
will
use expertise in human
health and in climate and crop processes to combine predictive
quantitative modelling of aflatoxin on crops with blood-based biomarkers
of aflatoxin exposure. Taking this novel holistic approach will enable
assessment of the seasonal predictability of human exposure to
aflatoxin. A forecasting tool will be developed that has the potential
for both immediate benefit and longer-term enabling of adaptation to
climate change. Throughout the project, the robustness of results will
be assessed by quantifying uncertainty, and hence permitting
probabilistic assessments. The project will begin towards the end of 2009 and
will last sixteen months. It is funded by the
CGIAR Agriculture and Health
Research Platform
.
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